States Obama Will Win This November

Total Electoral College Votes: 414

Base States: 153

Name Electoral College Votes
HI 04
CA 55
IL 21
DC 03
MD 10
DE 03
NY 31
CT 07
RI 04
MA 12
VT 03

Contest States: 191

Name Electoral College Votes
WA 11
OR 07
NV 05
CO 09
NM 05
MN 10
IA 07
KS 06
WI 10
MI 17
OH 20
PA 21
VA 13
FL 27
NJ 15
NH 04
ME 04

Surprise States: 70

Name Electoral College Votes
TX 34
GA 15
NC 15
MS 06

This is undoubtedly a high-end projection, but I make this prediction with a confidence factor of 0.80 - meaning that at a minimum, Obama will secure 331 electoral college votes.

I am predicting today that Obama carries the core Democratic base of liberals, women, American-Afrikans, Latinos and all of these demographics are augmented by a surge in the turnout of the under 45 age group.

Additionally, the Libertarian candidacy of Bob Barr will receive significant numbers of Republican votes in the formerly solid Republican South.

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